Friday, May 26, 2017

The party in the markets will end soon: Jim Rogers

Indian markets are at record highs. What is driving this rally? Is there more steam left in this rally, or will the party be over soon?

It is not just Indian markets—what is driving Indian markets is also driving other markets. There are massive amounts of money around, and it needs to go somewhere, and it is going into the markets. India is not the only one going through the roof—look at Europe, America. The central banks have made a lot of free money available—Mr (Donald) Trump has told everyone that everything is going to be OK, and he is come up with some policies which people think will be good such as cutting taxes and building infrastructure… That is why markets in many countries are going up—I think the party will end soon, but I am very, very bad at timing it.

Are Indian markets expensive at this point? Why or why not?

I don’t know the Indian valuations currently. The problem is when the markets start going down, it doesn’t matter if they are cheap, or expensive—all of them will go down. I don’t know of anything that is really cheap in India.

When and by how much do you see an earnings recovery happening for Indian companies?

That is one of the problems—an earnings recovery has not taken place and the markets are going up. This is a problem globally because there is a lot of free money and easy money, and then there is optimism about tax cuts in the US—that is the worry for me—that all of this is not real and is based on free money. Free money, while it lasts, is wonderful, but it always come to an end.

Where does India stand in your EM/Asia preference? Why?

India is not the preferred market for me—it is at an all-time high. I’ve told you before that I don’t prefer to buy when markets are at an all-time high. I don’t want to get on a moving train—when you jump onto it, you’ll get hurt. You won’t get hurt if you buy something that is ignored and sitting in the corner—you’ll not make any money for a while, but you won’t get hurt.

Will Donald Trump’s tax cut plans impact emerging markets in a big way? How much impact do you see on Indian information technology (IT) and pharma sector from visa restrictions and protectionist policies?

If it happens, and Trump does what he says, it is good for the world, because it will revive many parts of the American economy.

When people have more money to spend, they will do it... everyone will be better off for a while, and that is why the markets are going up.

Trump says he will cut taxes and that sounds very good. But how is he going to do all this? Protectionism has never been good for anybody. No one has ever won a trade war. Every one will suffer with protectionism, and if Indians cannot go to America anymore, it may be bad for Indian companies, but it will be good for India.

The smart Indians won’t be rushing to the US any more—they will stay in India and build companies. Or maybe, they will go to China or Germany—but in the end, it will be better for India than the US.

- Source, Live Mint